Polymarket Isn’t a Prediction Market for the Real World
Was the Epstein suicide note released by May 8th? Did Trump say “Iran” during events with Xi Jinping?
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events. Instead of betting against a house, you trade shares with other users in an open, peer-to-peer market. Prices reflect the market’s collective belief in the probability of an event occurring. […] All trades are settled through smart contracts on the blockchain, ensuring transparent and trustless operation.
Epstein suicide note released by...?
On April 30th, 2026 at 2pm, the New York Times announced the existence of a possible suicide note written by Jeffrey Epstein, sealed by a judge in New York.
A suicide note purportedly written by Jeffrey Epstein in a Manhattan jail has been kept secret for nearly seven years, locked up in a New York courthouse. […] On Thursday, The New York Times petitioned the judge to unseal the note, which said it was “time to say goodbye,” the cellmate, Nicholas Tartaglione, recalled.
— Jeffrey Epstein’s Possible Suicide Note Hidden From Public View
A few hours later, at 7pm, Polymarket created a new prediction market.
Epstein suicide note released by...? [May 8, May 31]
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any message or note written by Jeffrey Epstein, intended as a suicide note, is made publicly available by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying note must be credibly reported to have been written by Jeffrey Epstein and have been intended to be a suicide note, final message, or equivalent communication.
The intent of this market is clear: the New York Times announced the existence of a purported suicide note and their efforts to have it released to the public, predict when (if ever) it will be released.
A week later, on May 6th, The New York Times announced the release of the note.
A federal judge has released a suicide note purportedly written by Jeffrey Epstein that was sealed for years as part of the criminal case of his cellmate. […] The note was made public on Wednesday by Judge Kenneth M. Karas of Federal District Court in White Plains, N.Y., who oversaw the cellmate’s case. The judge acted after The New York Times petitioned the court last Thursday to unseal the document and published an article in which Mr. Tartaglione described the note and how it came into his possession.
Note released. May 6th is before May 8th. Prediction true. Congratulations to the winners, commiserations to the losers.
How does Polymarket decide the truth?
Polymarket lives on the Ethereum blockchain. The New York Times is not on the blockchain. The Federal District Court in White Plains, N.Y. is not on the blockchain. Polymarket bridges the real world and the blockchain with “a decentralized truth machine”, UMA.
UMA’ s optimistic oracle (OO) can record any verifiable truth or data onto a blockchain. […] The OO can validate natural-language statements and answer questions about real-world events. This includes arbitrary questions about weather, sports, elections, markets or anything universally verifiable. […] Tokenholders vote on disputes and earn rewards.
— UMA
On May 8th the UMA tokenholders were asked to vote on the question “Epstein suicide note released by May 8th?”. Voters read the rules. Votes rolled in. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. The overwhelming consensus of the decentralized truth machine is Yes, the Epstein suicide note was released by May 8th.
You Can’t Handle the Truth!
As a Polymarket bettor, you bet according to the rules. As an UMA voter, you vote according to the rules. But these rules aren’t the same. Voters receive the rules as the bettors did, plus unbounded additional information.
Updates made by the question creator via the bulletin board at […] as described by […] should be considered.
Following the decentralized truth machine’s determination that Yes, the Epstein suicide note was released by May 8th, Polymarket issued an update to the question:
Articles cited to prove the validity of the note within this market’s timeframe (Handwriting on newly released note matches one found after Epstein’s death, experts tell AP, Compare the Purported Epstein Suicide Note to His Writings) continue to stress that they have not directly authenticated the May 6 note.
The update introduced a new rule, “directly authenticated”. Prediction market bettors did not bet on a “directly authenticated” note. Millions of dollars of volume flowed through the market without any mention of a “directly authenticated” note.
On May 12th, Polymarket triggered another vote, the final vote. Unknown to market participants, voters are instructed that “they have not directly authenticated the May 6 note”. The votes roll in.
No Double clarification by Polymarket
NO per Polymarket Clarification
No Per Polymarket clarification.
No Polymarket added a clarification that the evidence is not satisfactory.
The vote finishes. No, the Epstein suicide note was not released by May 8th. The decentralized truth machine’s decentralized truth has flipped from Yes to No. Same voters, same evidence, different outcome. Polymarket’s update decided the outcome.
Will Trump say “Iran” during events with Xi Jinping?
Donald Trump was scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping from May 14 to May 15, 2026. On May 4th, Polymarket created a market asking “What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?”. Options included “Six Seven”, “Iran”, “Cookie”, “Ship / Chip” and “Sleepy Joe”.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring Xi Jinping from May 14 through May 15, 2026 (Beijing Time). Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. […] The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market’s resolution.
On May 15th, during a scheduled tea meeting at Zhongnanhai between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, Trump said the following:
We’ve settled a lot of different problems that other people wouldn’t have been able to settle. And the relationship is a very strong one. We’ve really done some wonderful things, I believe, we did discuss Iran, we feel very similar on Iran, we want that to end.
The meeting was broadcast across dozens of TV channels and livestreams, including BBC China (1:30:40).
And on the Taiwan SETNEWS Live Channel (1:08:44):
Did Trump say “Iran” during events with Xi Jinping? Yes. Demonstrably. UMA votes flooded in. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. The consensus is clear. Then, Polymarket updated the rules.
Per market rules, “only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market’s resolution.” Footage that was not broadcast live, even if filmed during the relevant events and released during market timeframe, will not qualify toward resolution.
Polymarket wanted a No result. Polymarket didn’t get a No result. Polymarket changed the rules to get a No result. Now, the footage was not “broadcast live” so it does not count.
What is Polymarket, then?
Polymarket is not a prediction market for real world events. Polymarket is a prediction market for Polymarket’s desired outcome. What determines their desired outcome? Insider trading? Influential whales? Political bias? Random chance? We don’t know. Polymarket is not transparent. Polymarket is not trustless.
Disclosures and notes
The author of this post held a position on Polymarket in both the “Epstein suicide note released by...?” and “Will Trump say “Iran” during events with Xi Jinping?” markets as a bet against Polymarket’s desired outcome.
The post focuses on 2 recent examples of Polymarket manipulating the outcome of markets; there are dozens of instances of Polymarket manipulating outcomes.
Gambling is bad, don’t gamble.
Article entirely formulated and written by a human, with all its flaws.